Gold price action has been extremely volatile in recent times. Last week, it briefly fell below $4,700 to $4,648, mainly because the US-Iran negotiations have once again fallen into a deadlock. Iran rejected the United States’ peace proposal, insisting that the US pay war reparations and lift oil sanctions. Trump immediately responded, saying it was completely unacceptable. This means the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to be reopened in the short term, and global energy conditions will remain tense.

I also noticed that Morgan Stanley issued a warning that the oil market is racing against time. If the blockade continues through June, the prior factors that suppressed oil prices may no longer be effective, and there is a risk that crude oil prices could break above the 2022 highs. This would further push up inflation expectations, disrupt the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut plans, and make the question of whether gold will rise a complex variable. In the short term, a stronger US dollar could attract capital outflows from gold, but in the medium term, if US stocks, bonds, and the dollar again fall into a “triple decline” situation, gold as a safe-haven asset would be in renewed demand.

From a technical perspective, after gold found support at $4,550, it has continued to rebound, indicating that buying interest is gradually moving in. If it can hold above $4,700, it may be able to challenge the $5,000 psychological level next, and even push toward $5,200. However, bears should also be cautious: if the Strait blockade lasts longer than expected, triggering a sharp jump in oil prices and fueling global recession expectations, gold’s price action will face more uncertainties.