I've noticed that gold has experienced a crazy trajectory so far in 2026. The year started with a wild surge - reaching nearly $5,600 in January, an all-time high, then plummeted sharply in March, losing about 12% in one month. Now it's May, and the price is hovering around $4,700-$4,800, and all indicators suggest that whether gold will rise again depends on very specific factors.

The truth is, what happened in the first months of the year reflects a real market struggle. On one hand, central banks are buying heavily, geopolitical tensions persist, and investors are seeking safe havens. On the other hand, the dollar is very strong, and US bond yields are rising, which puts heavy pressure on gold.

Regarding forecasts for the second half of the year - major institutions are relatively optimistic. JPMorgan expects gold to reach $6,300 by year's end, UBS raised its forecast to $6,200 with a bullish scenario that could reach $7,200 if crises intensify. Even Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs see levels around $6,000 and $5,400 respectively.

But here’s the problem - will gold actually rise? The answer depends on three main factors. First, the decisions of the US Federal Reserve. If they continue raising interest rates or keep them high, gold will suffer. Second, the geopolitical situation - any real easing of tensions could reduce demand for safe havens. Third, the movements of major investors - a mass exit from gold toward stocks or other assets could pressure prices.

On the supportive factors side, inflation is still present - it rose to 3.3% in March after being 2.4% in February. This means price pressures have returned, and gold benefits from this. Additionally, central banks’ purchases from emerging markets continued strongly, and demand for gold exchange-traded funds remains robust.

If you're considering entering now, I advise you not to rush. Gold may test higher levels, but the path isn’t straight. Set clear goals - do you want to preserve capital or seek short-term profits?

For short-term trading, CFDs offer high flexibility and the ability to profit from both rises and falls. But beware of leverage - it can amplify your profits tenfold, but your losses too. For long-term investing, gold bars and coins are safe but require storage costs. Gold ETFs provide a easier alternative.

In the end, will gold rise? A high probability yes, especially with ongoing global uncertainty. But timing and strategy are key. Don’t let numbers and forecasts tempt you into emotional decisions. Study the market, understand the drivers, and develop a clear plan. That’s the difference between a successful investor and a loser.