📊 Today's key data:
• BTC current price: ~$77,620 (Intraday rebound of over 4%, weekly candle closing with an extremely long lower shadow)
• Macro ignition point: Trump publicly stated over the weekend that negotiations with the Middle East have entered a critical memorandum stage. War premium is fading, global risk appetite instantly warms up, and BTC has become the first destination for off-exchange funds to flow back.
• Chip deflation: Despite a $1.34 billion ETF outflow last week, the latest statistics show MicroStrategy has accumulated over 170k BTC this year. The extreme buying by a single giant combined with exchange reserves at a three-year low creates a vacuum where the market faces "no coins to sell" at any moment.
🔍 Today's in-depth analysis:
1️⃣ Over 450 million long liquidation, creating a classic "short trap"
Over the weekend, using regulatory delays and FUD from soaring US Treasury yields, the main players precisely cleared out the high-leverage longs around 77,000. But before the shorts could celebrate, the "peace agreement expectation" this morning directly fueled the counterattack. The pattern of dropping below 75,000 and being instantly absorbed by spot buying, leaving a long wick, indicates that long-term holders (LTH) remain unmoved, and the washout only affects weak-handed speculators.
2️⃣ The guiding star of the "single super buyer" era
A current market saying: Bitcoin is becoming "a one-man game." MicroStrategy's purchases this year have already far exceeded the total mined coins by miners during the same period (about 62k). While this phenomenon fuels FOMO among retail investors, it also plays a ruthless "lock-in" macro role. With MicroStrategy and IBIT backing at the bottom, the market's defense line is much stronger than expected.
3️⃣ Indicator recovery, the upside space has been "bloodied" open
On the 4-hour chart, RSI has completed a golden cross from the oversold zone at 28, pulling back above the 50 midline. The recent sharp decline has reset the entire network's funding rate, and currently, there is no heavy contract burden, making resistance minimal.
📉 Monday's practical trading suggestions:
• Support levels: First support at $76,500 (the absolute territory for bulls to recover), strong support at $75,000.
• Resistance levels: Key resistance at $78,500. Holding here, the weekly rally can directly restart towards 82,000.
• Trading ideas:
• Spot: No need to say more, "playing dead" is the highest respect. During periods of supply shocks, every sudden plunge driven by news is a window for large capital to add positions.
• Futures: Do not blindly try to top out on the left side and open shorts now. Bullish sentiment is rapidly recovering under news stimuli. It’s recommended to adopt a "dip-buying on the middle Bollinger Band" strategy, preparing for a secondary push after the US stock market opens on Monday.
💬 Interactive topic:
Trump's "peace card" directly buried the shorts. Do you think this V-shaped reversal can push us past the $80k mark? Have you recovered your altcoins? #股票交易挑战最高赢17000U $BTC

BTC1.25%

IBIT-2.38%

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