Lately, I've been pondering a question: Will gold rise again?

This isn't just a simple technical issue, but understanding the forces truly driving gold prices behind the scenes.

I’ve noticed that many people only look at rate cuts and inflation when it comes to gold, but it’s much more than that.
Since the beginning of this year, central banks worldwide have continued to increase their gold holdings, surpassing the 1,000-ton mark for the fourth consecutive year.
Even more interesting is that 76% of central banks say they will increase their gold allocation ratio over the next five years.
This isn’t short-term speculation; it’s a structural signal.

Why is this happening?
Simply put, it’s a long-term adjustment of confidence in the US dollar.
The foreign exchange reserve freeze event in 2022 fundamentally shook people’s confidence in the fiat currency system.
Gold, on the other hand, cannot be unilaterally frozen, making it the true “ultimate store of value.”
When global debt reaches $307 trillion, and central banks are pondering how to protect assets, gold’s appeal becomes hard to diminish.

Of course, short-term volatility can be intense.
I’ve seen gold prices fluctuate significantly over the past year due to tariffs, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, geopolitical conflicts.
Especially at the beginning of this year, as real interest rates rebounded, gold once retraced 18%.
Such volatility tests one’s mindset.
But this is exactly the point I want to emphasize—
The long-term bottom of gold is rising higher and higher, with limited downside in bear markets, which makes it worth paying attention to.

Let’s see what institutions are predicting.
Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end target to $5,700, and JPMorgan even sees $6,300, mainly based on continued central bank buying and surge in safe-haven demand.
Of course, some are more optimistic, believing that if geopolitical crises escalate or the dollar depreciates sharply, prices could reach $6,500 to $7,200.

But I have to be honest—gold’s upward trend has never been a straight line.
If you’re a short-term trader, volatility is an opportunity, especially around US data releases.
If you’re a beginner, start with small amounts to test the waters—don’t chase highs blindly.
If you’re a long-term investor, gold can indeed diversify risk, but be prepared for a drawdown of over 20%.
Gold price volatility isn’t lower than stocks; the average annual amplitude is 19.4%, larger than the S&P 500’s 14.7%.

My personal view is—will gold rise again?
The probability is high.
But the key isn’t predicting specific prices, but whether you have a systematic way to monitor these driving factors—central bank gold buying trends, Federal Reserve policies, geopolitical tensions, real interest rate changes.
Inflation remains sticky, debt pressures persist, geopolitical tensions continue—these fundamentals are still there.
Short-term pullbacks may occur, but the long-term structural upward logic remains unchanged.

Rather than following news blindly, it’s better to build your own analytical framework.
Understand whether you’re a short-term trader or a long-term investor, then decide how to participate accordingly.
That’s the right approach to dealing with gold’s volatility.