People have been asking me lately, will gold prices keep rising? To be honest, it’s a good question, because it directly reflects the confusion many people have right now.

I’ve noticed that behind this round of gold’s rally there isn’t something as simple as inflation or panic. What’s truly driving gold prices are deeper structural factors—doubts are creeping into U.S. dollar credit, central banks around the world are狂 buying gold, and global debt is piling up by the mountain-load. The year 2022 was a turning point. After that, gold evolved from a straightforward inflation-hedge tool into a comprehensive hedging asset against geopolitical risks, fiscal pressure, and concerns about monetary credit.

According to data from the World Gold Council, in 2025 global central banks’ net gold purchases will exceed 1,200 tons, already breaking above the 1,000-ton mark for the fourth consecutive year. More importantly, 76% of surveyed central banks believe they will increase their gold allocation over the next five years. This is not short-term hype, but a real structural shift. Why are central banks doing this? Because they are expressing long-term doubts about the dollar system through their actions.

What we’re seeing now is that the U.S. fiscal deficit is expanding, debt disputes are happening frequently, and the de-dollarization trend is clear—funds are continuously shifting from dollar assets to hard assets. At the same time, trade protectionism and the uncertainty around tariff policies are creating short-term volatility, geopolitical risks haven’t gone away, and expectations of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are also supporting gold prices. Global total debt stands at $307 trillion, which means countries’ policy flexibility is constrained: monetary policy is more likely to turn accommodative, real interest rates are being suppressed, and gold naturally benefits.

But let’s make this clear: will gold prices keep rising? The answer is that there is a chance, but absolutely not a straight-line climb. In 2025, due to adjustments in Fed policy expectations, gold pulled back by more than 10–15%. In early 2026, real interest rates rebounded and gold also saw a significant correction of as much as 18%. Violent volatility is the norm—you need to be mentally prepared.

If you’re a short-term trader, the recent swings have actually provided plenty of trading opportunities. Around the release of U.S.-market data (Nonfarm Payrolls, CPI, FOMC), volatility is especially pronounced, and 5–10% short-term surges are common. But you must set strict stop-losses; controlling risk within 1–2% is the baseline.

If you’re a beginner, my advice is to start with a small amount to test the waters—never blindly add more. Learn to read the economic calendar and track U.S. economic data. That’s far more reliable than blindly following the crowd. Keep in mind that gold’s annual average amplitude is 19.4%, which is higher than the S&P 500’s 14.7%—its volatility isn’t smaller than stocks.

If you’re a long-term allocation investor, gold is indeed suitable as a diversification tool in an investment portfolio, but you must be psychologically ready to withstand a drawdown of 20% or more. Don’t put all your net worth into it—diversification is the right way. Experienced investors may consider combining long- and short-term approaches: hold a core position long term, and use satellite positions to trade short term based on volatility, especially around data releases.

Now, look at how institutions are forecasting. By the end of 2026, the consensus expectation is a baseline range of $5,400 to $5,800, and in an optimistic scenario it could reach $6,000 to $6,500. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target from $5,400 to $5,700. JPMorgan expects it could reach $6,300 in Q4. The reasons all point to continued central bank buying, inflows into ETFs, and escalating geopolitical crises. UBS believes that the recent pullbacks are a buying opportunity, with a forecast for the full-year average price of $5,000.

But what I want to emphasize is that institutional forecasts don’t equal a single path. The World Gold Council also clearly mentions that if economic growth slows and interest rates fall further, gold may rise gradually; but if policies succeed in boosting growth and the dollar strengthens, gold prices could decline. So the gold price in 2026 looks more like high-level consolidation with an upward tilt, rather than a one-way, nonstop rally.

My view is this: since the central-bank gold-buying trend erupted in 2022, it has never truly stopped, and it won’t suddenly disappear in 2026. Because sticky inflation, debt pressure, and geopolitical tensions are still there. The gold price’s “bottom” keeps getting higher—bear-market downside is limited, and bull-market momentum remains strong. But the key is that you need a systematic way to monitor these changes, not just follow the news.

The trading costs for physical gold are relatively high, generally 5–20%. Frequent trading can eat away a large portion of profits. If you want to do swing trading, gold ETFs or XAU/USD futures with better liquidity may be more suitable. Most importantly, think through your own positioning first—short-term, long-term, or for allocation—then decide what method to use to enter the market.

Will gold prices keep rising? My answer is that the long-term bullish logic is still there, but the process will absolutely not be smooth. Follow the trend, manage risk well—that’s the correct attitude.