In May, alkali plant maintenance increased, exports improved, and low prices received speculative support, but medium to long-term oversupply still faces challenges. Upstream, profit margins improved due to ammonium chloride price increases, alkali plant profits recovered, and production willingness strengthened, leading to a long-term supply surplus. On the demand side, photovoltaic glass faces significant pressure, with daily melting rates decreasing; after float glass daily melting, it may rebound, and export prospects remain to be seen. In the short term, rising coal costs are pushing prices higher, but there is long-term downward pressure for a correction.

K-LinePoet

2026-05-25 11:47:06

Abstract generation in progress

In May, more alkali factories underwent maintenance, exports performed well, and lower prices had some speculative purchasing support, but the logic of medium- to long-term oversupply remains unchanged. Currently, upstream caustic soda plants are experiencing improved profits due to rising ammonium chloride prices, while ammonia-alkali profits are still relatively low. Overall, alkali plant profits have significantly recovered, and aside from maintenance, alkali factories have strong production willingness. Long-term supply remains bearish, while short-term maintenance is bullish. The demand side for photovoltaic glass has recently faced significant pressure, with daily melting rates expected to continue declining. Float glass daily melting rates are expected to rise later, but export sustainability remains to be seen. Overall demand shows no major bright spots. Supply and demand oversupply still persist, and short-term prices may be more driven by rising coal costs. In the medium to long term, prices face downward pressure. (CITIC Futures)

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CITIC Futures: In the short term, pure soda ash prices may be more driven by rising coal costs; in the medium to long term, prices face downward pressure.

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