Prediction markets face further crackdowns again! Indonesia blocks Polymarket because betting markets related to President Prabowo stepping down crossed the red line

Indonesia's Communications and Digital Ministry announced the blocking of the prediction market platform Polymarket, labeling it as an "illegal online gambling platform." The trigger was the platform's release last week of a betting pool on President Prabowo Subianto's "when he will step down." This move makes Indonesia the second Asian country after South Korea to crack down on Polymarket, bringing the regulatory gray area of prediction markets back into focus.
(Background: Polymarket under scrutiny again: South Korea's anti-gambling review initiated, June election bets as the trigger)
(Additional background: Polymarket announces return to the U.S.: approved by CFTC to operate as a "designated contract market")

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• What red line was crossed? Indonesia officially classifies as "illegal gambling"
• Regulatory headwinds in Asia: South Korea has also taken action, global attitudes vary
• The gray area of prediction market regulation: Watching from Asia-Pacific countries

Indonesia's Ministry of Communications and Digital (Kominfo) officially announced on the evening of May 24 that it has blocked the prediction market platform Polymarket, categorizing it as an "illegal online gambling platform." The reason cited was that the platform allows users to speculate on the outcomes of "uncertain events," violating local online gambling bans. This is the harshest crackdown Indonesia has imposed on Polymarket and marks the latest wave of regulatory headwinds faced by the platform in Asia.

The direct trigger for the ban can be traced back to May 21: the day after President Prabowo Subianto announced plans to bring the export rights of major commodities like coal and palm oil under national control, Polymarket listed a controversial betting pool—wagering on "when Prabowo will resign as president." Prabowo's term is legally supposed to end in 2029, and this betting pool quickly went viral on Indonesian social media, drawing high government attention.

What red line was crossed? Indonesia officially classifies as "illegal gambling"

As the world's largest Muslim-majority country, Indonesia's criminal law explicitly prohibits all forms of gambling, including online and offline. In a Friday evening announcement, Alexander Sabar, an official from the Ministry of Communications and Digital, clearly stated that Polymarket's operation "involves betting and speculation on uncertain event outcomes," thus constituting illegality. Sabar further indicated that the government is conducting a comprehensive review of all social media accounts related to Polymarket.

It is noteworthy that Indonesia's crackdown on online gambling is not solely due to Polymarket. In recent years, the government has shut down tens of thousands of gambling websites and ordered banks to block transactions related to gambling. Reuters reported that the central commodity export policy announced by Prabowo on May 20 had already caused ripples in the investment community, and the subsequent listing of the presidential resignation betting pool on Polymarket hit a politically and regulatorily sensitive nerve.

Regulatory headwinds in Asia: South Korea has also taken action, global attitudes vary

Indonesia is not the first Asian country to take regulatory action against Polymarket. Previously, South Korea's Korea Center for Gambling Crime Prevention (KCSC) launched an official review, determining that Polymarket's operation might violate South Korea's anti-gambling laws, with the June local elections betting pool as the main trigger.

However, Polymarket has received a very different treatment in the United States: approved by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the platform has resumed operations as a "designated contract market," offering regulated prediction contract trading. This coexistence of "legal vs. illegal" within the same platform reflects the lack of consensus worldwide on the legal classification of prediction markets.

The gray area of prediction market regulation: Watching from Asia-Pacific countries

Prediction markets like Polymarket allow users to bet on sports events, election outcomes, and even geopolitical developments. This industry, valued at billions of dollars, faces vastly different regulatory attitudes across countries. Some U.S. states also consider prediction markets to be illegal, unlicensed gambling activities under local laws.

In the Asia-Pacific region, most countries have yet to establish clear legal frameworks for prediction markets. For example, domestically, prediction markets are currently in a regulatory vacuum—neither officially classified as gambling nor overseen by a federal regulator like the U.S. CFTC. Indonesia's recent hard crackdown on Polymarket could set an example for other emerging Asian markets, further constraining the development of prediction markets in the region.

Polymarket has not yet responded to Reuters' email request for comment. The Indonesian government has indicated it will continue to review related social media accounts of the platform. Prabowo's government, while pushing economic reforms, remains highly sensitive to politically charged content, adding more uncertainty to the future of prediction markets in Asia.