Recently, many people have been asking if gold will continue to rise. I will organize my understanding of this market trend.

To be honest, whether gold goes up or down is never determined by short-term news, but by understanding the underlying structural logic. The fundamental driver of this bull market is actually the cracks appearing in the global credit system. The foreign exchange reserve freeze incident in 2022 shattered many people's perceptions of the safety of sovereign assets. Since then, gold has evolved from a simple inflation hedge into a comprehensive hedging asset against geopolitical risks, fiscal pressures, and currency credit doubts.

Looking at the actions of central banks, we can see the trend. According to data from the World Gold Council, last year, global central banks net purchased over 1,200 tons of gold, marking the fourth consecutive year of net buying exceeding a thousand tons. More importantly, 76% of surveyed central banks said they plan to increase their gold holdings over the next five years, while also expecting the dollar reserve ratio to decline. This is not short-term speculation but a long-term structural change. So, will gold continue to rise? Based on the ongoing purchases by central banks, the support at the bottom is indeed strengthening.

Of course, short-term volatility factors are also quite evident. The expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit, uncertainties around tariffs, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts are all boosting risk aversion sentiment. Coupled with ongoing geopolitical tensions, market demand for gold remains high. I noticed that recently, gold prices experienced an 18% sharp correction due to a rebound in real interest rates, but this precisely indicates that the gold bottom is continuously rising. Every time it dips, new buying interest comes in.

Looking at institutional forecasts, the consensus target for gold by the end of this year is between $5,400 and $5,800, with optimistic scenarios even reaching $6,000 to $6,500. Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end target from $5,400 to $5,700, and JPMorgan expects to reach $6,300 in the fourth quarter. The logic behind these forecasts points in the same direction: continuous central bank buying, strong risk aversion demand, and declining real interest rates.

But I want to say that gold's rally has never been a straight line. In 2025, due to adjustments in Federal Reserve policy expectations, it retraced 10-15%, and earlier this year, it experienced an 18% sharp correction. So, will gold continue to rise? The answer is long-term bullish, but short-term fluctuations are inevitable.

If you are a short-term trader, volatility around U.S. market data releases can be amplified, which might present opportunities. But you must set strict stop-losses and avoid blindly chasing highs. If you're a beginner, start with small amounts to test the waters, learn to read economic calendars, track U.S. economic data, and use that to inform your decisions. If you're a long-term investor, gold is suitable as a diversification tool in your portfolio, but be prepared to endure a decline of over 20%. The annual average volatility of gold is 19.4%, not smaller than stocks.

Another important detail: the transaction costs for physical gold can be as high as 5-20%. Frequent trading can eat up a large portion of profits. If you want to do swing trading, gold ETFs or liquid tools like XAU/USD are more suitable.

In summary, whether gold will continue to rise depends on your time horizon. The fundamental issues like sticky inflation, debt pressures, and geopolitical tensions are still unresolved, and central bank buying trends haven't stopped. So, in the long run, the logic of a gold bull market remains. But in the short term, you need a systematic approach to monitor the market, not just follow news blindly. Go with the trend, clarify your position, and then decide how to enter.