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The Calmest Bitcoin Accumulation in the Last 18 Months Is Currently Happening

Bitcoin whale positions have reached their highest annual level, while retail demand is at its most bearish point in 2026.

The number of entities holding 1,000+ BTC reached 1,282 on May 22, matching this year's peak recorded on May 3. The Whale vs Retail Delta divergence is now the strongest since November 2024, indicating a proactive accumulation scenario.

Retail Demand Touches 5-Month Low in Bearish Territory While Whales Accumulate Quietly

Bitcoin demand appears to have hit its most bearish level of 2026. However, the Whale vs Retail Delta has turned into the strongest positive divergence in 18 months. These two findings offer an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin's price.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reported on May 25 that Bitcoin demand seems to have decreased by around -147,000 BTC. This figure is the most bearish since December 2025, indicating that new issuance now exceeds market absorption. Darkfost views this situation as one where sharp demand declines combined with excessive pessimism have become an opportunity for patient investors.

This demand decline is primarily driven by retail investors. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is currently at 28, entering deep fear territory, signaling panic among retail investors. Alphractal reported that the Whale vs Retail Delta recorded its highest positive divergence since November 2024.

Wallet addresses holding 1,000+ BTC have added 47,000 BTC over the past 14 days. One strategy even bought 24,869 BTC last week at an average price above the current spot price. There is also a whale that has been inactive since 2013, transferring 500 BTC for the first time in 12 years.

Alphractal’s Holder Sentiment Method currently shows a score of 0.82. The last time this number reached 0.80 when Fear was below 30 was in March 2024. Bitcoin then increased by 67% over the following 90 days.

Massive buying by whales pushed the number of Bitcoin entities holding 1,000+ BTC to 1,282 on May 22.

This figure has already matched the highest record of the year last recorded on May 3. This on-chain data confirms that whales are building positions at the highest levels despite panic among retail investors.

Large Supply Cluster at US$78,258 Becomes Key Resistance Level Above Spot Price

The whale position aligns with a specific supply cluster above the current price. Glassnode’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution data highlights a dense supply cluster at US$78,258. About 415,534 BTC last changed hands at this level, equivalent to 2.07% of the total supply.

This cluster sits right as the primary resistance above the spot price. If this area is broken, previously inactive supply could become a new support base. Coins last moved at this price tend to remain inactive after the transaction, reducing selling pressure from above.

Whales seem to be building positions with the hope that this level can break and turn into a strong support zone. The success of this strategy will depend on spot demand returning to push Bitcoin’s price through this cluster. Therefore, Bitcoin price levels and this proactive setup should be closely watched.

Bitcoin Price Targets Bullish Pattern Above US$74,177

The 12-hour chart shows how Bitcoin could breakout past this supply cluster. On May 25, Bitcoin traded at US$77,250, forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern in its early phase. The pattern structure is not yet complete; the left shoulder and head are clear, but the right shoulder is still forming.

The lower peak (head) of this pattern occurred at US$74,177 on May 22, coinciding with the deepest sentiment drop. The initial trigger for this pattern is if the price is rejected at the neckline area of US$78,125. If the price fails to break the neckline, Bitcoin may form a higher low between US$76,040 and US$74,177 to complete the right shoulder. The neckline area of US$78,125 also coincides with the supply cluster discussed earlier.

A 12-hour candle close above US$78,125 after the right shoulder forms, then a clean breakout past US$79,057, will confirm this pattern. The next movement target is a 5% surge toward US$82,073 from the neckline confirmation. But if the 12-hour price closes below US$74,177, the pattern will be invalidated, and the whale accumulation case will weaken further.

Note: Even the absence of rejection at US$78,125 keeps the pattern alive. This only pushes the neckline higher.

The chart, supply cluster, and whale positions point to one conclusion. The proactive setup is beginning to form because whales have already taken positions before the breakout, while retail investors are still reacting out of fear.