Recently observing the gold market, I suddenly realized that the logic behind this wave of rally is far more complex than it appears on the surface.

On the surface, it seems to be expectations of interest rate cuts, sticky inflation, and geopolitical risks—old familiar themes, but the real story lies in— the cracks forming in the global credit system. The US dollar’s status as a reserve currency is quietly being questioned. The foreign exchange reserve freeze event in 2022 completely changed how central banks worldwide perceive asset safety. Since then, gold is no longer just a tool to hedge against inflation, but has become the ultimate hedge against the entire fiat currency system.

I’ve noticed a very interesting phenomenon—central banks have been consistently buying gold since 2022. According to the latest data, global central banks have been net purchasing over 1,200 tons of gold for several consecutive years. This is not short-term speculation, but a strategic national-level allocation. More importantly, 76% of surveyed central banks say they plan to increase their gold holdings over the next five years, while also expecting the dollar’s reserve ratio to decline. What’s behind this? A long-term skepticism of the dollar system.

In the short term, trade protectionism, uncertainty around tariffs, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, geopolitical tensions—all are creating volatility. But these fluctuations are actually noise in the context of long-term trends. What truly elevates gold’s bottom support are the slow-moving variables: the adjustment of trust in the dollar, continuous central bank accumulation, global debt pressures (recently reaching $307 trillion), and risks from stock market highs.

Regarding the current gold price level, my view is— it’s not the end, but already oscillating at high levels. Excluding inflation, real gold prices still have room to reach the historical peak of 1980, but this doesn’t mean prices will rise endlessly without retracement. The recent pullback (about 18% since March) is quite normal and actually presents a buying opportunity.

As for the gold price forecast in 2026, opinions among institutions vary, but the general trend is bullish. Consensus estimates are around $4,800 to $5,200 per ounce, with year-end targets of $5,400 to $5,800, and optimistic scenarios reaching $6,000 to $6,500. Major banks like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citibank have all raised their target prices, citing the same reasons—continued central bank buying, Fed rate cut expectations, and surge in safe-haven demand.

But I want to emphasize one point—no matter how precise the gold price forecast is, it doesn’t mean a single straight path. Slowing economic growth and further rate cuts will push gold higher, but if policies succeed in boosting growth and the dollar strengthens, gold could also retreat. So, the 2026 trend is more like oscillating at high levels with an upward bias, rather than a one-way rally.

Is it still possible to buy gold now? My answer is—there’s opportunity, but it depends on your role. If you’re a short-term trader, volatility around US market data releases is an opportunity, but you must set strict stop-losses. If you’re a beginner, start with small amounts to test the waters—don’t blindly chase highs, learn to use economic calendars to inform decisions. If you’re a long-term investor, gold is indeed suitable as a diversification tool in your portfolio, but be prepared for a drawdown of over 20%.

Experienced investors can consider a combination approach—holding core positions long-term, using volatile periods for short-term trading. This requires strong risk control, but the potential returns are greater.

A few reminders: gold’s annual volatility is 19.4%, higher than the S&P 500; gold’s cycles are very long, over 10 years are needed to see clear trends; physical gold trading costs are high (5-20%), frequent trading eats into profits, so better to use gold ETFs or liquid tools like XAU/USD.

Finally, regarding the 2026 gold price trend, my view is— this trend won’t suddenly disappear. Inflation persists, debt pressures remain, geopolitical tensions continue, and central banks’ gold buying motivation stays. The gold price bottom keeps rising, with limited downside in bear markets and strong continuation in bull markets. But remember, gold’s rally is never straight; there will be fluctuations. The key is whether you have a systematic approach to monitor it, rather than chasing news impulsively. Clarify your positioning first, then decide how to enter the market.