On May 25, JPMorgan stated in its latest report that while this is not its baseline scenario, the S&P 500 index is expected to rise to 9,000 by mid-2027, driven by the continuation of the technology capital expenditure cycle, the expanding profit contributions from AI, and an improvement in market risk appetite. The institution believes that the market may currently underestimate the probability of this bullish scenario. If the index reaches 9,000, it would indicate an approximate 20% increase from current levels. The report highlights that the technology, media, and telecommunications sectors remain core variables driving further upward movement in the index, particularly the ability of AI investments to consistently translate into corporate revenue and profit growth, which will determine whether U.S. stocks can enter the next upward phase. However, there are significant divergences in market opinions; the mainstream view on Wall Street suggests that after a rapid rebound from the March lows, U.S. stocks are likely to enter a consolidation phase in the short term. Rising global bond yields are expected to suppress consumer spending and corporate investment, thereby dragging down economic growth. The energy shock caused by the situation in Iran has raised inflation and increased fuel prices, becoming a key risk factor for central banks worldwide. Additionally, historical trends indicate that high-return markets over consecutive years are difficult to sustain long-term. Melissa Brown, Managing Director of Investment Decision Research at SimCorp, cited long-term market statistics showing that since 1926, U.S. stocks have only achieved annualized returns exceeding 15% for four consecutive years three times, making such scenarios extremely rare. Brown also noted that after three consecutive years of annualized returns exceeding 20%, the average return in the fourth year is only 3.9%, significantly below the historical average of 11.8%. She acknowledged that historical data cannot definitively determine this year's trends, and the AI-related sector still has the potential to drive the market higher. However, if this year indeed sees low double-digit growth, the likelihood of the market continuing to rise next year will further decrease.

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JPMorgan: S&P 500 Index Expected to Reach 9,000 by Mid-2027

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