Global central banks are shifting from rescuing the market to controlling inflation, with BTC temporarily supported by geopolitical factors, but liquidity tightening remains the hard constraint.

The global markets are shifting from optimism about US-Iran negotiations to concerns over high inflation, interest rates, and sovereign debt risks. The Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again around October, with a potential room for a 25 basis point hike before the end of the year. The ECB is also evaluating a rate hike in June, and the narrative of rate cuts to rescue the market is fading. The global bond market is beginning to push back against the "perpetual backstop" by central banks, with high-valuation assets facing real interest rate and cash flow discount pressures. BTC is temporarily supported by the Middle East situation's recovery, but overall liquidity may tighten.