JPMorgan: The S&P 500 index is expected to rise to 9,000 points by mid-next year

BlockBeats News, May 25 — JPMorgan Chase stated in its latest report that, although this is not its baseline scenario, driven by the continuation of the tech capital expenditure cycle, expanded AI-related profit contributions, and improved market risk appetite, the S&P 500 index is expected to rise to 9,000 points by mid-2027.

The institution believes that the market may currently underestimate the probability of this bullish scenario. If the index reaches 9,000 points, it would still have about 20% upside from current levels. The report states that the technology, media, and telecommunications sectors remain the core variables driving the index higher, especially whether AI investments can continue to translate into corporate revenue and profit growth, which will determine whether U.S. stocks can enter the next upward phase.

However, there are clear disagreements within the market. Mainstream Wall Street views believe that after a rapid rebound from the March lows, U.S. stocks are likely to enter a period of consolidation in the short term. The continued rise in global bond yields will suppress consumer spending and corporate investment, thereby dragging down economic growth. The energy shocks triggered by the Iran situation, which push up inflation and fuel prices, are also key risk factors that central banks around the world are paying close attention to.

Additionally, from the perspective of historical trend patterns, sustained high returns over multiple years are difficult to maintain long-term. Melissa Brown, Managing Director of Investment Decision Research at SimCorp, citing long-term market statistics, pointed out that from 1926 to the present, U.S. stocks have only achieved four consecutive years of annualized returns exceeding 15% three times, such occurrences are very rare.

Brown also noted that after three consecutive years of annualized returns exceeding 20%, the average return in the fourth year is only 3.9%, far below the historical average of 11.8%. She admitted that historical data cannot definitively determine this year's trend, and AI-related sectors still have the potential to drive the market higher. However, if this year indeed achieves low double-digit growth, the likelihood of the market continuing to surge next year will further decrease.