May 24 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

News:
Yesterday, BTC briefly retreated to around 74,000 before quickly rebounding, partly attributed to Trump announcing Middle East peace agreements (including Iran-related agreements and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz), which eased geopolitical risks and boosted risk assets🚀
Macro background: Persistent inflation pressure, weakening bond markets, BTC is seen as a hedge asset. Analysts point out that BTC has ended its longest period of underperformance compared to the S&P 500 (142 days), and may enter a new relatively strong phase
Capital flow:
ETF Flows: Cumulative inflows remain positive in 2026, but the growth rate is slower than in 2024-2025. There was a single-day large outflow of $635M in mid-month (a 3-month high), and around $105M net outflow around May 22. Major products like BlackRock IBIT contributed mainly to fluctuations
Funding Rates: After long-term negative values, they are trending toward mild positive or neutral, indicating sufficient deleveraging, potential for short squeeze exists, but not extremely crowded. Historically, prolonged negative funding often marks bottom regions (e.g., near the $60k low in February)
On-Chain: Active addresses and trading volume have rebounded, holder behavior is becoming more dormant (profit supply ratio rising but not extreme). Miner revenue remains stable, overall indicating strong bottom signals, but new capital entry is limited
Technical:
Recently, the market has been heavily influenced by news, but it is still following our expectations. Yesterday, we mentioned that this position might see a move downward because the main trend has not yet bottomed out, but even if it moves down, watch for a four-hour divergence. Currently, a four-hour bottom divergence has indeed formed, so next we should watch for a rebound at the four-hour zero line
The market has now returned to the 76,400 to 77,700 range. This V-shaped reversal was mainly driven by news stimuli, so a period of consolidation and correction is needed. Therefore, intraday will likely fluctuate around this range. In summary, smaller timeframes need to oscillate to find the main direction, and this level is supported on the weekly chart, so a downward continuation is also an opportunity for entry.