On Polymarket, the probability of "Bitcoin reaching $100k this year" has already dropped to 37% as of May 24, down from 49% on May 10. At the same time, the probability of "reaching $90k" is at 59%, and the chance of "dropping to $50k" is also 41%.

The mechanism of prediction markets is essentially allowing participants to buy real money on whether a certain outcome will or will not happen. In the end, the price becomes a collective snapshot of the perceived probability. This 37% is equivalent to a collective expectation snapshot.
Interestingly, the U.S. is also discussing a new version of the ARMA Act, aiming to include Bitcoin in the national strategic reserve, even proposing a plan to hold about 5% of the global circulating supply. From a narrative perspective, this leans more towards long-term bullishness.
On one side are grand policy blueprints, and on the other side is conservative probability pricing. Whether the gap between them will be bridged depends on the subsequent legislative progress and whether macro risk appetite will undergo another round of change.