$CL Firmly bullish!

Trump personally announced that the U.S.-Iran agreement is “basically reached,” and the Strait of Hormuz will open as a result. The moment the news broke, oil prices instantly dropped, but this “golden pit” is the bottom where the market wrongly sold at the war clouds after they disperse. Citibank warned that if the blockade continues through the end of June, oil prices could surge to 150 dollars; Goldman Sachs said global inventories are being depleted at a rate of 11 million barrels per day. The price action should be falling but isn’t—I directly entered the entire $500,000 long position around $91!

1. The market misjudged how fast the agreement would be implemented: there is a 30-day transition window from the memorandum to the final signing and execution. Iran demands that sanctions be lifted immediately, while the U.S. insists on substantial concessions. Currently, the strait’s throughput has not yet recovered to the normal level of 17 million barrels per day, and Citibank has pushed its navigation outlook back to the third quarter. Israel still maintains a high level of vigilance, and the geopolitical risk premium can’t be allowed to drop to zero.

2. The supply-demand gap basically hasn’t eased: OPEC+’s modest production increase is like putting out a fire with a bucket in the face of a supply deficit measured in millions of barrels. Global inventories have fallen to their lowest level in nearly a year, and Morgan Stanley bluntly said the buffer mechanism is about to run out. After the sharp selloff in oil prices, buy orders pulled prices back above $91 quickly—this is a typical signal of long positions building strength.

3. Smart money is already bargain hunting: a major whale on-chain opened 25x leverage GOLD long positions, with a position value of $12.6 million. Wall Street investment banks collectively raised their oil price expectations, while retail investors are still panic-selling. When even the worst news is already priced in, a move lower from this level is a bull trap.

Lock in a full $500,000 with the position, and wait for the strait’s throughput timeline to tear off the shorts’ disguises—then fully ignite the oil market’s next major upside surge!