#美元指数跌破99关口 #TradFi交易分享挑战 The Middle East situation sees signs of easing, and the US Dollar Index weakens immediately

The Middle East situation sees signs of easing, and the US Dollar Index weakens immediately
Last week, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting. Some Fed officials generally believe that, with inflation running high and uncertainties surrounding the Middle East, the current interest-rate policy may need to be maintained for a longer period. However, the meeting minutes released a key signal: if inflation continues to stay above 2%, rate hikes will be considered.
Based on the CPI data released in April, inflation has already risen to 3.8%. The market expects inflation in May to rise to above 4%. Given the current trend, a significant rise in inflation seems all but certain. As expectations for rate hikes gradually heat up, this will inevitably provide support for an upward move in the US Dollar Index.
Last week, the US Dollar Index was mostly trading strongly in the 99.30–99.50 range. From the current fundamentals, although monetary-policy signals supporting rate hikes provide support for the US Dollar Index, Trump recently said that the US and Iran have basically reached an agreement, and that the final details will be announced soon. Iran has also indicated that the memorandum of understanding is about to be finalized. Affected by these factors, on Monday this week, the US Dollar Index in Asian markets saw a short-term pullback to around 99.00.
This week, attention will be on the final outcome of negotiations between the US and Iran. If the talks make substantive progress, the US Dollar Index still has room to decline in the short term.
Over the previous week, the US Dollar Index fluctuated between 98.93 and 99.51, showing a range-bound pattern. On Monday this week, Asian markets saw a short-term retreat, and at the time of writing it is temporarily fluctuating around 99.00. Looking at the weekly chart, after the US Dollar Index was supported for a sustained period by a medium- to long-term upward trend line, it triggered a rebound. In the short term, although the exchange rate shows a rally followed by a pullback, this does not mean that the rebound is over. If, after the US Dollar Index adjusts, it once again attempts to break higher and tests the technical resistance line at 100.15, and it successfully holds above that level, it is likely to produce a new round of upward movement. Conversely, it is important to note that if the pullback continues and effectively breaks below the support of the medium- to long-term trend line at 97.93, once this scenario occurs it would mean the end of the US Dollar Index’s upward trend.
Overall, regarding changes in the future trend, caution is needed because the US Dollar Index could choose a direction at any time. Support level: 97.93; Resistance level: 100.15