In Peace Pricing | Rewire News Morning Brief

The market is pricing in peace with Iran, but Washington insiders are already arguing among themselves. In the same week, the European Central Bank listed AI as a core risk to the banking industry.

1 | Iran Framework Agreement Emerges, Brent Crashes 5% to $98, Republican Party Divided

Iran peace negotiations made substantial progress over the weekend. According to the Associated Press, both the US and Iran are close to reaching an agreement: ending the war, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile, with specific sanctions relief and asset freeze conditions to be negotiated within a 60-day window. Brent crude oil responded with a 5.2% drop to $98.12 per barrel, WTI fell to about $92. Goldman Sachs data shows global oil inventories are being consumed at a record pace of 8.7 million barrels per day, reducing 250 million barrels from March to April.

The market is pricing in peace, but Trump’s own party allies are publicly opposing. Republicans like Cruz, Wicker, and Graham warn him that he is "about to make a disastrous mistake," believing the agreement conditions are too lenient, and that three months of war could be "all for nothing." Conversely, Iran views the conditions as too generous and suspects a trap. The White House says final approval could take days, with Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei still needing to sign. The greatest risk to peace isn’t Tehran, but internal divisions in Washington. (Continued from yesterday’s report)

(Source: Fortune / Axios / Associated Press / Goldman Sachs / IEA)

2 | SpaceX IPO Set for June, $1.75 Trillion Valuation Anchors Starship V3

SpaceX is expected to go public in June under the ticker SPCX, with a target valuation of $1.5 to $2 trillion, median $1.75 trillion. If successful, it will be the largest tech IPO in history. Under a dual-class share structure, Elon Musk retains over 85% of the voting rights. Early investors say that Starship V3 is the infrastructure foundation for "all frontier markets" including orbital data centers, Starlink expansion, and lunar missions, with its performance data directly impacting the credibility of the S-1 narrative.

On May 22, V3 completed most of its first flight, but the booster recovery failed (as reported yesterday by Rewire), with several anomalies during the flight. SpaceX is not the only space player. Companies like Rocket Lab, Firefly Aerospace, and Intuitive Machines are already listed, and China’s Shenzhou 13 launched on the same day, turning space race from government monopoly into an industry sector. IPO pricing logic now values "space infrastructure platforms" based on imagination and potential rather than current revenue.

(Source: Fortune / Wall Street Journal / Euronews / Reuters / SpaceX)

3 | European Central Bank Urgently Summons Banks: AI Models Now a "Core Risk" to Banking

According to the Financial Times, the ECB has convened senior banking executives to accelerate fixing risk management flaws exposed by AI models. ECB Commissioner Elderson said AI is speeding up the discovery and exploitation of cybersecurity risks. Pedro Machado from the ECB’s banking supervision further characterized AI as a "core risk" affecting governance frameworks, business models, and multiple risk dimensions.

The ECB’s concerns are not hypothetical. Research shows reinforcement learning systems have exhibited coordinated response patterns similar to bank runs in certain scenarios. On the same day, TechCrunch reported Google is also "exploring AI safety in real time," and VentureBeat noted AI agents are creating a new class of production accidents that existing post-incident analysis templates cannot classify. AI risks are shifting from "we need to discuss" to "we need to fix immediately." Banks, tech companies, and regulators all admit they are unprepared; the only difference is who speaks up first.

(Source: Financial Times / Bloomberg / ECB / TechCrunch / VentureBeat)

4 | Vitalik Announces Ethereum Foundation Will Be a "Smaller Ship," 8 Researchers Depart This Year

Vitalik Buterin responded to the wave of researcher departures from the Ethereum Foundation. At least 8 senior contributors will leave or have announced plans to leave by 2026, with 5 leaving just in May. Vitalik said the foundation will be "smaller, more opinionated than in previous years, perhaps in ways that are hard to understand but more sustainable." The foundation will reduce ETH sales, focusing on "longevity rather than breadth." He also stated that his influence within the foundation will continue to diminish, "which is exactly what I want."

Vitalik redefined researcher departures as "evidence that the 2025 reorganization is proceeding as planned." His logic is that the foundation is proactively delegating execution authority to client teams and independent organizations; the departing researchers are not stopping their work on Ethereum, just shifting to more suitable entities. Ethereum’s power structure is deliberately undergoing decentralization, but this time the decentralization targets the development organizations themselves. For ETH holders, the short-term benefit is reduced foundation selling, while the long-term variable is whether the decentralized development forces can stay coordinated.

(Source: The Block / Phemex / CryptoTimes / BeInCrypto)

Also worth knowing ↓

China’s Shenzhou 13 launched, with Hong Kong’s first astronaut selected; one astronaut will stay aboard the space station for a year. Laichia-ying, with a PhD in computer forensics, is Hong Kong’s first space traveler. The one-year mission aims to "explore human adaptability and performance limits." Launch was moved up from November to May, coinciding with SpaceX IPO and Shenzhou 13 launch, accelerating the US-China space race. (Sources: Al Jazeera / CGTN / Washington Post)

AI is accelerating the threat of quantum computing to cryptocurrencies. CoinDesk reports security experts warn AI is shortening the window for quantum attacks on current encryption algorithms. On the same day, another report states that crypto infrastructure is becoming the default payment backbone for AI agents. AI is threatening both the security layer of cryptocurrencies and becoming their clients. (Sources: CoinDesk)

StablR stablecoin was attacked via multi-signature vulnerability, with $13.5 million in unsecured tokens minted. After obtaining a multi-sig holder’s private key, the attacker replaced the other signers and minted 8.35 million USDR and 4.5 million EURR under a 1-of-3 threshold. EURR dropped to $0.85, USDR to $0.70. Blockaid characterized this as "access control failure" rather than a code bug, citing human and process issues. (Sources: The Block / Blockaid / BeInCrypto)

Ubisoft tested generative AI in Far Cry 7; insiders say "it looks like trash." The company recorded a record €1.3 billion loss. During its worst losses, it used AI to replace content creation, motivated more by cost savings than innovation. (Sources: Tom's Hardware)

TD Bank launched an AI agent model to accelerate mortgage approvals. TD Canada Trust introduced automated AI models for mortgage and home equity credit applications. On the same day, the ECB warned banks about AI risks; TD’s AI-driven loan approval was launched simultaneously, highlighting a widening gap between regulation and implementation. (Sources: Finextra)

Xreal claims to have cracked the smart glasses industry, collaborating with Google on next-generation products. Founder Xu Chi believes AR glasses have finally reached a turning point. Google’s choice of Xreal over in-house hardware development indicates a shift from self-research to partnerships in AR, with Meta’s Ray-Ban route not being the only solution. (Sources: TechCrunch)

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