What is the final outcome of the US-Iran conflict script? Just look at the market's reaction to know

May 23rd, Trump announced high-profile that the US-Iran agreement is "basically negotiated," and at the moment the news broke, Bitcoin quickly rebounded, once reaching near $77,500. Brent crude oil plummeted 6%, altcoins collectively followed suit, and the entire crypto market seemed to bid farewell to the gloom overnight.

But if you think the script has ended here, you might want to think again.

The "temperature difference" of the agreement: verbal talks, but no real de-escalation at sea
Just looking at Trump's statement that the "agreement is basically negotiated" can indeed give the market a boost. It is rumored that the US and Iran are finalizing a memorandum of understanding to extend a 60-day ceasefire, during which the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened, Iran agrees to clear mines, and the US will lift some sanctions and unblock Iranian ports.

The problem is, the authenticity of this "good news" cannot withstand close scrutiny.
The most unsettling signal comes from Trump himself. On the 23rd, he said the agreement was "basically negotiated," but just one day later, he changed his tune, saying it was "not fully finalized." In just 24 hours, his attitude shifted, and the confidence the market had just ignited was doused with a cold shower.

More intriguing is the actual geopolitical "temperature difference." According to radio recordings obtained by Xinhua near the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. military vessels on the 24th still issued warnings to ships entering and leaving Iranian ports, and no signs of easing the maritime blockade were observed. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson also admitted that there are still "deep and broad differences" between the two countries.

This so-called "draft agreement" is essentially more like a draft that both sides are still tugging over at the last minute.

For the crypto market, this means that this rebound may be based on an extremely unstable expectation. Historically, geopolitical news-driven surges, if not followed by substantive progress, tend to give back most of the gains.

The quality of the rebound: a "paper tiger" of short covering
Another hidden risk in this market rally lies in the details of the capital structure.
Just 24 hours ago, Bitcoin experienced a brutal decline, dropping to a low of $74,000. Prior to that, for six consecutive days, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of about $1.26 billion, making it the fifth-largest weekly redemption since the ETF's launch in 2024, with total assets under management falling below $1.01B. Even more painfully, BlackRock's IBIT saw a weekly outflow of $1.008 billion, accounting for 80% of the total weekly outflows — even the core products are bleeding. Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been negative for several days, revealing the US market's purchasing power fatigue.

Data points to a somewhat pessimistic conclusion: this rebound is more driven by short covering and short-term trading rather than healthy new long positions. Open interest in futures contracts decreased during the rebound, which precisely indicates that the main force pushing prices higher is not active buying but forced liquidation of previous shorts.

In other words, the emotion-driven "paper tiger" can turn back into its original form at any moment once good news weakens.

The variable is not at sea, but on the interest rate chart

The next step in the ceasefire is actually more critical than Trump's words.
After Israel was excluded from US-Iran negotiations, it faces enormous strategic pressure. Netanyahu's three war objectives — overthrowing the Iranian regime, destroying Iran's nuclear program, and eliminating missile programs — have not been achieved. If Israel launches a final "tactical strike" before the ceasefire, the entire negotiation framework could collapse instantly.

But the real long-term variable lies not in the Strait of Hormuz but in the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision room. Waller recently made it clear that a rate hike is not off the table, advocating for the removal of "accommodation bias." After the market's disillusionment with rate cuts, Bitcoin, as a zero-yield asset, faces a long-term headwind of high capital costs.

The "pricing anchor" at $75,000
According to Gate's interval probabilities, the core battleground for bulls and bears is currently between $75,000 and $78,000, with a probability of about 55% to 60%; the chance of dropping to $72,000–$73,000 is about 25% to 30%; in extreme cases, falling to $70,000 has a probability of about 15% to 20%.

This indicates that the market is neither in a collapse phase nor in a strong breakout phase but is instead a period of institutional re-accumulation and consolidation.

What can truly push Bitcoin above $80,000?
Within the current range, a breakout upward requires three conditions to be met simultaneously.
Substantive implementation of the US-Iran ceasefire. If the ceasefire remains just a verbal framework, oil prices and inflation expectations will not be truly suppressed. Without inflation easing and rate hike expectations retreating, the opportunity cost of holding coins remains high. From Waller's statements, "policy risks have changed," and the Fed's short-term shift toward easing is rapidly diminishing.

Continuous positive ETF capital flows. If the scene of $1.1 billion inflows over two trading days in early May reappears, it would indicate that institutions are truly rebuilding positions.

Ongoing regulatory support. If the CLARITY Act and the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" proposal make substantial progress in June, market confidence will not collapse in the short term.
The likelihood of all three conditions being met simultaneously is currently low.
Trump's peace signal "quick fix" is ultimately a placebo; its efficacy is limited. When the market realizes that interest rates are unlikely to fall, ETF outflows persist, and institutions and smart money remain on the sidelines.