Polymarket 35% vs Market Pricing 12-Month Rate Hike, Which Is More Accurate?

Mars Finance News, on May 25, according to Bloomberg, U.S. bond investors expect that the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, Waish, will prioritize the central bank’s credibility in fighting inflation rather than the rate cuts promoted by President Trump, while the market has already priced in a rate hike in December through tools such as swaps. Notably, on Polymarket, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year is only reported as 35%.