At midnight, I checked the stablecoin supply curve again, and then saw someone using it to compare against ETF net inflows—followed by the conclusion that “since off-exchange money is coming in, XX must go up.” Honestly, most of the time, these two are just synchronized moves driven by the same sentiment; it’s not necessarily that one is pulling the other. An increase in stablecoin issuance could also be for market making, cross-exchange arbitrage, OTC inventory build-up, or even simply swapping “shells” on-chain. As for ETFs, they’re more like a channel for traditional funds, but they can get tangled up by redemptions and hedging as well. Recently, during airdrop season, it’s even more ridiculous—once task platforms roll out anti-sybil measures plus a points system, the “freebie hunters” act like they’re clocking in for work. Stablecoins bounce back and forth across various chains; the data looks lively, but a lot of it is “busy” rather than “money.” I now treat these indicators as thermometers—don’t rush to treat them as a steering wheel. First, carefully separate and record each transfer and the gas before drawing any conclusions.