#TradFi交易分享挑战 US Dollar Index Market Analysis

Last week, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the April monetary policy meeting. Some Fed officials generally believe that, due to high inflation combined with uncertainties in the Middle East situation, the current interest rate policy may need to be maintained for a longer period. However, the minutes also sent a key signal: if inflation remains above 2%, rate hikes will be considered. The CPI data released in April showed an increase to 3.8%, and the market expects inflation in May to rise above 4%.
Currently, it is clear that inflation has significantly risen and has become a settled fact. With expectations of rate hikes gradually heating up, this will inevitably support the upward movement of the US dollar index.
Last week, the US dollar index mainly traded strongly around 99.30-99.50. From the current fundamentals, although the release of monetary policy signals supporting rate hikes provides support for the dollar index, recent comments from Trump indicate that the US and Iran have basically reached an agreement, with final details to be announced soon. Iran also stated that a memorandum of understanding is about to be finalized. Influenced by this factor, the dollar index in Asian markets briefly retreated to around 99.00 on Monday.
This week, focus on the final outcome of US-Iran negotiations. If substantial progress is made, the dollar index still has room to decline in the short term. The weekly chart shows that last week, the dollar index fluctuated around 98.93-99.51. On Monday, Asian markets saw a short-term pullback, with the index temporarily around 99.00 at the time of writing. From a weekly perspective, the dollar index previously rebounded after being supported by a medium- to long-term upward trend line. Although the price showed a rally followed by a pullback in the short term, this does not mean the rebound has ended. If the dollar index corrects and then again tests the upper resistance line at 100.15 and successfully stabilizes above it, a new upward trend is likely to emerge. Conversely, if the correction continues and the index effectively breaks below the medium- to long-term trend support at 97.93, this scenario would mean the end of the dollar index’s upward trend. Overall, caution is needed regarding future market movements, as the dollar index could change direction at any time. Support level: 97.93; Resistance level: 100.15$USIDX