#TradFi交易分享挑战

In the recent period, market sentiment has switched extremely quickly. After gold went through a one-sided rally in the first quarter of 2026, it has entered a deep pullback and is now consolidating around the $4,500 level. The attempted breakout of the April historical high of $4,830 has been declared a failure.

At present, the core logic driving the market is undergoing a shift: the financial characteristics (the interest-rate environment) that supported the prior advance and the safe-haven characteristics (geopolitical conflict) have both entered a headwind period in sequence—this is the direct reason why it is difficult to form a sustained uptrend.

Macroeconomic pressure is becoming the dominant bearish factor. The market has fully priced out any possibility of rate cuts this year. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December continues to climb. The U.S. Dollar Index has stabilized near a six-week high. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has broken above 4.5%. The opportunity cost of holding gold is rising continuously, steadily pulling away from safe-haven buying.

The retreat in safe-haven marginal demand is also a key variable. Although the situation in the Middle East has not yet been fully calmed, optimistic signals from the final negotiation stage between the U.S. and Iran have partly weakened gold’s geopolitical buying momentum.

Long-term support is still in place: central banks around the world continue to buy gold. In Q1, global central banks’ net purchases of gold exceeded 244 tons. China’s central bank has increased its gold reserves for 18 consecutive months. Central banks in different countries view gold as a core asset in their de-dollarization strategy, providing strong bottom support for gold prices.

Signals on the screen are mixed, with both bulls and bears interwoven. On the daily chart, short-term moving averages are arranged in a bearish pattern, indicating that every rebound faces selling pressure from above. But the strength of the relative strength index is slowing its upward advance, suggesting the market is not falling in a one-way panic decline. In terms of technical ranges, the $4,452 level below is the key near-term support, while $4,590 above is resistance for a short-term rebound. It is expected that prices this week will continue a choppy, slightly weaker pattern.

Overall, gold in the short term is still in the process of searching for a new balance as it bottoms out. In the short run, the priority is to guard against downside moves; in the medium term, attention should be on whether global central banks’ gold purchases can reassert dominance in the pricing logic after absorbing the impact of interest-rate negatives.
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