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Today's market is quite interesting:
📊 BTC $77,103 ( +0.4% ), as steady as a rock
📉 Fear and Greed Index: 25, Extreme Fear
💸 BTC ETF net outflows this week total $1.2 billion, the third-largest weekly outflow
🇮🇷 Iran denies Trump's claim that "the Strait of Hormuz will open," stating the strait is still under Iran's "full control"
🏦 New Federal Reserve Chair Warsh takes office, traders bet on rate hikes in 2026, BTC stays steady at 77k, but the surrounding sentiment is all fear—ETF funds fleeing, geopolitical volatility, rising hawkish expectations for the new Fed chair, altcoins collectively bleeding (DOT -3.6%, SUI -3.2%).
This reminds me of a saying: "When others are fearful, I am greedy"—but the problem is, after fear, there might be even greater fear.
The past 48 hours' developments are almost more outrageous than a movie:
1. Trump says the US-Iran agreement is "basically reached,"
2. BTC surges as Iran says "Trump's statement is incomplete,"
3. The market pulls back, crude oil dark pool plunges 9%,
4. Cryptos follow the rollercoaster, over 110k traders liquidated in 24 hours, $737 million wiped out
Honestly, at this level, both bulls and bears have valid points:
Bullish: Extreme fear is often a contrarian indicator, BTC hasn't broken below $75k support
Bearish: ETF continues to outflow + Warsh hawkish + geopolitical uncertainties, downside risk far exceeds upside potential
💬 What is your current position? Would you add to your position at 77k, or keep waiting? If it drops to 70k, what would you do?