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#TradFi交易分享挑战 Monday Gold Prices Surge Significantly, Hidden Downside Risks to Watch, Today’s Gold Price Trend Analysis
Last week, international gold prices fluctuated mostly at high levels, losing momentum after a rally, gradually declining, with the lowest dropping to $4453 per ounce, finally holding above the $4500 threshold, closing at $4508.25.
Today is Monday, and gold opened sharply higher this morning, opening around 4538, pulling back to 4533 before starting to surge again, breaking through 4550, with a high of about 4578.
Why did it open so high suddenly? The core reason is that positive signals came out from US-Iran negotiations. Although a peace agreement has not been officially signed, both sides have eased their attitudes, and the market has started to pre-anticipate a “possible agreement.” Crude oil plummeted over 5% due to this news, indirectly driving gold prices higher in the short term. Additionally, today many countries are on holiday, with fewer traders, leading to more volatility; on normal trading days, the fluctuations would be even larger.
Many people are now most concerned: with such a rise, can we chase the long position directly?
Not recommended to blindly chase.
First, the negotiations have not been finalized; this is just a market driven by expectations. Such positive news comes quickly and dissipates just as fast. The US side says they won’t rush to make decisions, and Iran also admits the possibility of negotiations breaking down remains. Negotiations could be delayed until after June, and the situation may fluctuate at any time.
Second, after the sharp decline in crude oil, the geopolitical situation is not fully stabilized, and many variables remain. Market moves driven by such news are usually not sustainable; chasing highs can easily lead to being trapped. Of course, there’s still a chance for prices to rise later.
If US-Iran negotiations truly succeed, risk sentiment will cool, crude oil may continue to fall, and gold could find support. Moreover, after easing tensions, inflation pressures will decrease, the Fed’s rate hike expectations will weaken, and rate cut expectations may re-emerge, which is generally favorable for gold in the medium to long term. Therefore, waiting for the news to be confirmed and the trend to clarify before considering going long is more prudent.
Regarding short-term: today’s gap-up rally technically needs to be filled. If the news reverses, gold is likely to retreat to test the 4500 level. Currently, chasing longs at this level is not cost-effective and carries higher risks.
Overall summary (only sharing market views, not investment advice):
Key resistance is around 4600; until it is firmly broken, the short-term trend leans more toward consolidation;
Important support is around 4500; if it cannot hold, further downside is possible;
Only if it can stabilize above 4600 can the bulls regain advantage;
Whether prices go up or down, such news-driven volatility is large and fast-paced, so position sizing and risk management must be carefully handled.
This content is only a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. $XAUUSD
Last week, international gold was generally fluctuating at high levels, losing momentum after a rally, steadily declining, with the lowest dropping to $4453 per ounce, finally holding above the $4500 mark, closing at $4508.25.
Today is Monday, and gold opened with a gap up this morning, opening around 4538, pulling back to 4533 before starting to surge again, breaking through 4550, with the highest reaching about 4578.
Why did it suddenly open higher? The core reason is that some positive signals came out from the US-Iran negotiations. Although a peace agreement has not been officially signed, both sides have eased their attitudes a bit, and the market has started to speculate in advance about the “possible success” of talks. Oil prices plummeted over 5% due to this news, indirectly driving gold higher in the short term. Plus, today many countries are on holiday, with fewer traders, leading to more volatile swings; on a normal trading day, the volatility would be even greater.
Many people are now most concerned about: with such a rise, can we directly chase long?
Not recommended to blindly chase.
First, the negotiations have not been finalized; this is just a market driven by expectations.
Such positive news comes quickly and dissipates just as fast. The US side said they wouldn’t rush to make decisions, and Iran also acknowledged that the possibility of talks breaking down still exists. Negotiations could be delayed until after June, and the situation could fluctuate at any time.
Second, after the sharp decline in oil, the geopolitical situation is not entirely stable, and there are many uncertainties ahead. This kind of news-driven market usually lacks sustainability, and chasing the high can easily lead to being caught. Of course, there’s also a chance for further gains later.
If the US and Iran actually reach an agreement, risk sentiment will cool down, oil prices may continue to fall, and gold could find support. Moreover, after the situation eases, inflation pressures will decrease, the Fed’s rate hike expectations will weaken, and rate cut expectations may re-emerge, which is generally favorable for gold in the medium to long term. So, waiting until the news is confirmed and the trend is clear before considering going long is more prudent.
Regarding short-term: today’s gap-up surge technically creates a need to fill the gap. If the news reverses, gold is likely to pull back to test the 4500 level. Currently, chasing longs at this level is not cost-effective and carries higher risk.
Summarizing the overall approach (for market opinion sharing only, not investment advice):
Key resistance is around 4600; until it is firmly broken, the short-term trend leans more toward oscillation and adjustment;
Important support is around 4500; if it cannot hold here, further decline may occur;
Only if it can break and hold above 4600 can the bulls be considered to regain the advantage;
Regardless of whether prices rise or fall, such news-driven market volatility is large and fast-paced, so position management and risk control are essential.
This content is only a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. $XAUUSD