#TradFi交易分享挑战 Gold prices surged sharply on Monday, with hidden risks of a pullback to watch out for, today’s gold price trend analysis

Last week, international gold was generally fluctuating at high levels, losing momentum after a rally, steadily declining, with the lowest dropping to $4453 per ounce, finally holding above the $4500 mark, closing at $4508.25.　　　　
Today is Monday, and gold opened with a gap up this morning, opening around 4538, pulling back to 4533 before starting to surge again, breaking through 4550, with the highest reaching about 4578.　　　　
Why did it suddenly open higher? The core reason is that some positive signals came out from the US-Iran negotiations. Although a peace agreement has not been officially signed, both sides have eased their attitudes a bit, and the market has started to speculate in advance about the “possible success” of talks. Oil prices plummeted over 5% due to this news, indirectly driving gold higher in the short term. Plus, today many countries are on holiday, with fewer traders, leading to more volatile swings; on a normal trading day, the volatility would be even greater.　　　　
Many people are now most concerned about: with such a rise, can we directly chase long?　　　　
Not recommended to blindly chase.　　　　
First, the negotiations have not been finalized; this is just a market driven by expectations.
Such positive news comes quickly and dissipates just as fast. The US side said they wouldn’t rush to make decisions, and Iran also acknowledged that the possibility of talks breaking down still exists. Negotiations could be delayed until after June, and the situation could fluctuate at any time.　　　
Second, after the sharp decline in oil, the geopolitical situation is not entirely stable, and there are many uncertainties ahead. This kind of news-driven market usually lacks sustainability, and chasing the high can easily lead to being caught. Of course, there’s also a chance for further gains later.　　　　
If the US and Iran actually reach an agreement, risk sentiment will cool down, oil prices may continue to fall, and gold could find support. Moreover, after the situation eases, inflation pressures will decrease, the Fed’s rate hike expectations will weaken, and rate cut expectations may re-emerge, which is generally favorable for gold in the medium to long term. So, waiting until the news is confirmed and the trend is clear before considering going long is more prudent.　　　　
Regarding short-term: today’s gap-up surge technically creates a need to fill the gap. If the news reverses, gold is likely to pull back to test the 4500 level. Currently, chasing longs at this level is not cost-effective and carries higher risk.　　　　
Summarizing the overall approach (for market opinion sharing only, not investment advice):　　　　
Key resistance is around 4600; until it is firmly broken, the short-term trend leans more toward oscillation and adjustment;　　　　
Important support is around 4500; if it cannot hold here, further decline may occur;　　　　
Only if it can break and hold above 4600 can the bulls be considered to regain the advantage;　　　
Regardless of whether prices rise or fall, such news-driven market volatility is large and fast-paced, so position management and risk control are essential.　　　
This content is only a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. $XAUUSD