#TradFi交易分享挑战 Recently, market sentiment has shifted extremely quickly. After experiencing a one-sided rally in gold prices in the first quarter of 2026, prices have deeply corrected to hover around the $4,500 level. The attempt to break the record high of $4,830 in April has been declared a failure.

Currently, the core logic of the market is undergoing a switch: the financial attributes that supported the previous rally (interest rate environment) and the safe-haven attributes (geopolitical conflicts) are both entering a headwind phase, which is the direct reason why a trend-based rally is difficult to form at this time.
Macroeconomic suppression has become the main bearish factor. The market has completely ruled out the possibility of rate cuts this year, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December continuing to rise. The US dollar index has stabilized at a near six-week high, and the 10-year US Treasury yield has broken through 4.5%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold and continuously pulling away safe-haven buying.
The marginal decline in safe-haven demand is also a key variable. Although the situation in the Middle East has not fully calmed, the optimistic signals from the final negotiations between the US and Iran have partially weakened the geopolitical buying momentum for gold.
Long-term support remains: global central banks continue to buy gold. In the first quarter, global central banks net purchased over 244 tons of gold. China’s central bank has increased its gold reserves for 18 consecutive months. Central banks around the world see gold as a core asset in their de-dollarization strategies, providing a solid bottom support for gold prices.
Market signals are mixed. The daily short-term moving averages are in a bearish alignment, indicating that each rebound faces selling pressure from above. However, the relative strength index (RSI) is losing upward momentum, suggesting the market is not in a one-sided panic decline. Technically, the key support level is around $4,452, and resistance on the upside is at $4,590. It is expected that prices will continue to fluctuate weakly this week.
Overall, gold is still in the process of searching for a new equilibrium through a bottoming process in the short term. The focus is on preventing further declines in the short term, while in the medium term, attention is on whether global central banks can reassert their pricing logic after digesting the rate-cut bearish factors.
#Polymarket每日热点 $XAUUSD