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The market sentiment is switching extremely quickly. After gold prices experienced a one-way advance in the first quarter of 2026, they have undergone a deep pullback and are consolidating around the $4,500 level. The attempted breakthrough above the historical high of $4,830 in April has been declared a failure.
At present, the core logic of the market is undergoing a switch: the financial attributes (the interest-rate environment) that supported the earlier upswing and the safe-haven attributes (geopolitical conflicts) have both moved into a headwind phase. This is the direct reason why it is difficult to form a sustained upward trend at this time.
Macro suppression is becoming the dominant bearish factor. The market has fully ruled out the possibility of rate cuts this year. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December continues to rise. The U.S. Dollar Index has stabilized at a near six-week high. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has broken through 4.5%. The opportunity cost of holding gold keeps increasing, continuously drawing away safe-haven buying.
The retreat of safe-haven demand at the margin is also a key variable. Although the situation in the Middle East has not yet fully calmed, optimistic signals that the U.S. and Iran are entering the final negotiation stage have already partially weakened gold’s geopolitical buying impetus.
Long-term support is still in place: global central banks continue to buy gold. In the first quarter, global central banks net bought more than 244 tons of gold. The People’s Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 18 consecutive months. Central banks in various countries view gold as a core asset in their de-dollarization strategy, providing solid bottom support for gold prices.
Signals on the board are interwoven with both bullish and bearish factors. On the daily chart, the short-term moving averages are arranged in a bearish alignment, indicating that every rebound faces sell pressure from above. But the uptrend in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slowing, suggesting that the market is not undergoing a one-way panic sell-off. In terms of technical range, the key support level below is $4,452, while $4,590 above is short-term rebound resistance. It is expected that the price this week will continue to trade in a weak, choppy pattern.
Overall, gold in the short term is still in the process of probing for a new equilibrium. In the short run, the focus is on preventing downside. In the medium term, attention will be on whether global central banks’ gold purchases can reassert the pricing logic after interest-rate-related bearish factors are digested.
#Polymarket每日热点 $XAUUSD
At present, the core logic of the market is undergoing a change: the financial attribute (the interest-rate environment) that supported the earlier rise, and the safe-haven attribute (geopolitical conflicts), are both entering a headwind period one after another—this is the direct reason why it is difficult to form a trend-based upswing right now.
Macro downside pressure has become the dominant negative factor. The market has fully ruled out any possibility of rate cuts this year. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December continues to rise. The US Dollar Index has stabilized at near a six-week high. The 10-year US Treasury yield has broken above 4.5%. The opportunity cost of holding gold keeps increasing, continuously draining away safe-haven buying.
The retreat of safe-haven demand at the margin is also a key variable. Although the situation in the Middle East has not yet been completely resolved, optimistic signals that the US and Iran are in the final stage of negotiations have partially weakened gold’s geopolitical buying momentum.
Long-term support still remains: global central banks continue to buy gold. In Q1, global central banks net purchased over 244 tons of gold. The People’s Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 18 consecutive months. Central banks across countries view gold as a core asset in their de-dollarization strategies, providing solid bottom support for gold prices.
Signals on the screen are mixed, with both bulls and bears interwoven. On the daily chart, short-term moving averages are arranged in a bearish order, indicating that every rebound faces sell pressure from above. But the rise in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slowing down, suggesting the market is not undergoing a one-sided panic-driven selloff. In terms of technical ranges, the key support level below is $4,452, while the short-term rebound resistance above is $4,590. It is expected that the price this week will continue a choppy, slightly weaker pattern.
Overall, gold in the short term is still in the process of searching for a new balance as it bottoms out. In the near term, the focus is on guarding against further downside. Over the medium term, attention is on whether global central banks’ gold purchases can reassert their dominant role in pricing logic after absorbing the interest-rate negative factors.
#Polymarket每日热点 $XAUUSD