Recent market sentiment is switching extremely quickly. After experiencing a one-way advance in gold prices in Q1 of 2026, the price has undergone a deep pullback and is stabilizing near the 4,500 level. Attempts to break the April historical high of $4,830 have already been declared a failure.

At present, the core logic of the market is undergoing a change: the financial attribute (the interest-rate environment) that supported the earlier rise, and the safe-haven attribute (geopolitical conflicts), are both entering a headwind period one after another—this is the direct reason why it is difficult to form a trend-based upswing right now.

Macro downside pressure has become the dominant negative factor. The market has fully ruled out any possibility of rate cuts this year. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December continues to rise. The US Dollar Index has stabilized at near a six-week high. The 10-year US Treasury yield has broken above 4.5%. The opportunity cost of holding gold keeps increasing, continuously draining away safe-haven buying.

The retreat of safe-haven demand at the margin is also a key variable. Although the situation in the Middle East has not yet been completely resolved, optimistic signals that the US and Iran are in the final stage of negotiations have partially weakened gold’s geopolitical buying momentum.

Long-term support still remains: global central banks continue to buy gold. In Q1, global central banks net purchased over 244 tons of gold. The People’s Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 18 consecutive months. Central banks across countries view gold as a core asset in their de-dollarization strategies, providing solid bottom support for gold prices.

Signals on the screen are mixed, with both bulls and bears interwoven. On the daily chart, short-term moving averages are arranged in a bearish order, indicating that every rebound faces sell pressure from above. But the rise in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slowing down, suggesting the market is not undergoing a one-sided panic-driven selloff. In terms of technical ranges, the key support level below is $4,452, while the short-term rebound resistance above is $4,590. It is expected that the price this week will continue a choppy, slightly weaker pattern.

Overall, gold in the short term is still in the process of searching for a new balance as it bottoms out. In the near term, the focus is on guarding against further downside. Over the medium term, attention is on whether global central banks’ gold purchases can reassert their dominant role in pricing logic after absorbing the interest-rate negative factors.
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