Recently, people have started to take stablecoin supply and ETF net inflows as solid evidence that "off-chain funds are coming in"... To put it simply, correlation does not equal causation. An increase in stablecoins could also be just circulating on-chain or market-making arbitrage, and ETF inflows and outflows might just be a different basket, far from your idea of "incremental buying." What's even more amusing is that a large transfer on-chain or a move between exchange hot and cold wallets is interpreted as smart money deploying—when I think it's more often that everyone just really wants a certain story. Anyway, I no longer trust that confidence that "by observing one indicator, you can predict the market's fate." First see what others say, then see what happens on-chain; the reflection is more honest than the entity itself.

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