Recently, some people have been using the stablecoin supply curve to speculate on ETF net inflows, saying "funds are coming in, so prices are rising," which sounds reasonable, but I really can't draw that conclusion when reconciling accounts in the middle of the night. On-chain newly issued stablecoins are sometimes just arbitrage between exchanges, market-making to replenish inventory, or even circulating through borrowing and lending, and an increase in numbers doesn't necessarily mean real outside capital is adding positions. The same goes for ETFs—when the redemption and subscription structure and hedging activities are mixed, the impact on spot prices may not be as significant as trending topics suggest.

Instead, the attention shifts driven by memes and celebrity endorsements are more straightforward to observe: when there are many people, everything seems like a "confirmation signal"; when there are fewer people, it’s just emotional sentiment. Veteran players advise newcomers not to take the last step, and I can only say... don’t treat correlation as causation; each transaction still needs to be analyzed separately. What I’ve learned isn’t techniques, but rather to first clarify "what exactly am I seeing" before taking action.