Wu's weekly macro indicators and analysis: progress in US-Iran negotiations, US PCE

Compilation: GaryMa Wu Talks Blockchain

Summary

Last week, Donald Trump said that negotiations for a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran have been “largely completed,” while the minutes of the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting show that most officials expect it will take longer for inflation to fall to 2% and, if necessary, the Fed may further tighten policy. Nvidia’s earnings beat expectations. This week, the focus is on the further developments following the U.S.-Iran negotiations situation, as well as U.S. April PCE.

Last Week’s Review

U.S. President Donald Trump said that negotiations for a peace agreement with Iran are “largely complete,” and that final confirmation is still pending among the U.S., Iran, and other relevant countries. He plans to announce the agreement soon in order to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran had previously said that talks with the U.S. regarding the peace agreement are making progress, and that the current focus is on ensuring ceasefires on all fronts, while other major disputes will be addressed in later stages.

FOMC meeting minutes: Most officials expect it will take longer for inflation to fall back to 2%, and if necessary, they may further tighten policy.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that the rise in energy prices triggered by conflicts in the Middle East is pushing up U.S. inflation. He supported removing “dovish” wording from future policy statements, emphasizing that the probabilities of rate cuts and rate hikes are now balanced. He said that if inflation expectations show signs of becoming unanchored, rate hikes in the future are not ruled out, but currently the preference is to keep interest rates unchanged and observe changes in the data. Fed “whisperer” Nick Timiraos said that Waller’s latest remarks are overall hawkish.

In the week through May 16, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. was 209,000, versus an expected 210,000; the prior value was revised from 211,000 to 212,000.

NVIDIA released its results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027. Revenue grew 85% year over year to $81.6 billion, beating market expectations. Adjusted EPS was $1.87, up 140% year over year. Of this, data center revenue rose 92% year over year to $75.2 billion, and networking revenue increased 199% year over year to $14.8 billion. The company expects second-quarter revenue of approximately $91 billion, with a fluctuation of ±2%, also above market expectations. On the financial side, quarterly free cash flow reached $48.6 billion. NVIDIA also said that AI infrastructure construction is continuing to accelerate, and that Agentic AI has started to create real value in enterprise scenarios. — link

Key Events & Indicators This Week

May 25

Progress in the U.S.-Iran negotiations situation

May 27

Japan’s central bank Governor Ueda Kazuo delivers remarks at a monetary policy meeting hosted by the Bank of Japan (08:00)

May 28

The European Central Bank releases the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting (19:30)

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending May 23 (in ten-thousands) (20:30)

U.S. April core PCE price index, year over year (20:30)

U.S. first-quarter real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate (revised) (20:30)

May 31

China May official manufacturing PMI (09:30)