Strategist warns: The likelihood of the Federal Reserve and other central banks raising interest rates rather than cutting them is increasing.

Odaily Planet Daily News: Despite people's growing concerns about inflation triggered by war, signs indicate that other factors are also influencing long-term borrowing costs. In the United States, the so-called "real yield," which excludes inflation effects, has a greater impact, suggesting that bond investors are worried about more than just price pressures from the Iran war. Other drivers include: the already massive public debt burden potentially expanding further, the impact of the artificial intelligence investment boom, and the increasing likelihood that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will raise interest rates rather than cut them.

Strategists at ING, Goldman Sachs, and Barclays all emphasize that a common speculation is: the recent rise in some long-term yields, even if inflation falls back due to rising oil prices, will not be fully reversed. This means that even if the conflict ends, market borrowing costs may remain near multi-year highs, continuing to pressure governments and the economy. (Jin10)