The probability of Bitcoin rebounding to $100k within the year on Polymarket has dropped from 49% to 37%, while CME Federal Reserve watch shows the probability of rate hikes within the year has risen to 67.9%.

Putting these two figures together, they better explain the current market pricing logic than any candlestick chart.
Prediction markets are essentially a game of funds betting on probabilities, and expectations of rate hikes are systematically lowering the upper valuation limit of risk assets.
The 37% on Polymarket is not just a simple sentiment indicator; it reflects macro funds recalibrating Bitcoin's tail returns.
More notably, the crypto fear index has fallen to 25, entering extreme fear territory.
But fear itself is not a buy signal—when the probability of rate hikes exceeds two-thirds, liquidity contraction expectations will suppress all rebounds.
Bitcoin breaking above $77,000 is more like a short-term short covering pulse rather than a trend reversal.
The downside risk is: if rate hikes materialize, the structure of funding rate recovery could be broken, and long positions may face a new round of liquidations.
The current market is in a "expectation trading" phase, and the real test will come after data confirmation.
$btc #defi #On-chain data #区块链 #Crypto market