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Kevin Warsh has officially succeeded Powell as Federal Reserve Chair,
but the market's reaction has not been very optimistic.
One reason is that Powell does not intend to give up a Federal Reserve Board seat,
and Trump has not fully gained control over the easing of interest rates.
Another reason is that Warsh is fundamentally a hardcore hawk.
During his tenure as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, he was the leading opponent of the second round of quantitative easing initiated by Bernanke.
Warsh publicly warned: "Printing money to solve structural economic problems is like borrowing high-interest loans to pay off credit card debt; it will ultimately trigger uncontrollable inflation and asset bubbles." In 2011, he chose to resign in protest of the Fed's excessive easing.
Warsh's ideology leans toward the idea that if the market is destined to fall, it’s better to let it fall freely, in other words, the so-called letting the market clear itself.
If Warsh were to blindly follow Trump’s reckless rate cuts, I think that would be a relatively low-probability scenario.
Warsh’s wife is Jane Lauder, rumored to be a top heir in the Estée Lauder family, part of America’s top-tier elite, composed of old money and transnational financial cliques.
Starting from this term, Trump’s economic core has been about high tariffs, localization, and anti-globalization, but Warsh’s family interests and social class are entirely aligned with "free trade and global capital flows," which could lead to significant future conflicts between the two power peaks.
Trump chose Warsh also because Jane Lauder’s uncle is a long-time political benefactor of Trump; theoretically, Warsh would never sabotage himself for the sake of pandering to the White House’s populist policies.
If Trump’s tariff policies severely damage the interests of old money globally, Warsh would not hesitate to use monetary policy to brake the White House.