Axel's judgment is quite calm—Dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and VIX, the three brothers, are controlling the market. Bitcoin's structural momentum is temporarily offline, and a rebound confirmation still depends on the indicator's mood.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr points out that Bitcoin has recently lost its structural bullish momentum, and the market has shifted to risk aversion. A rebound can only be confirmed once the Impulse indicator moves back above the zero line. Macro factors such as the US dollar index, 10-year US Treasury yields, and VIX dominate the market; if they enter a supplanting mode, on-chain data may also become invalid. At the same time, spot ETF capital flows are far below peak levels, and attention should be paid to the Coinbase premium index to assess genuine US buying activity.