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Analyst: Bitcoin has lost its structural bullish momentum, and the market is in a risk-averse state
Macro factors are currently reasserting dominance over the market, including the US dollar index (DXY), the 10-year US Treasury yield, and the VIX volatility index. He believes that when the macro environment enters a "supremacy mode," even if on-chain data remains relatively strong, it may temporarily lose effectiveness.
Additionally, the US spot Bitcoin ETF dashboard shows that the current ETF 30-day capital flow momentum is $362.8 million, far below the peak of $13.21 billion set in December 2024.
The market should pay attention to Coinbase's premium index, which remains an important proxy indicator for US spot demand. When this index stays above zero for a long time, it indicates that US buying demand is still present; if it falls into negative territory, even if BTC rises, it may lack genuine US capital support.