Recently, I saw someone using the supply curve of stablecoins to shout about "off-chain funds coming in/out" in relation to ETF inflows and outflows, and I couldn't help but laugh... correlation does not equal causation. An increase in stablecoins might just mean everyone is holding chips on the chain waiting for opportunities, or it could be inventory for market makers, hedging, arbitrage, or even paying project team salaries—basically, anything can be explained. Not to mention incidents like cross-chain bridge hacks—when something happens, stablecoins tend to rush into "seemingly safe" places, causing the curve to distort.

My mom asked me last night: If you buy an ETF, does that mean the on-chain price will definitely go up? I could only reply half-heartedly: Not necessarily, a lot of money simply doesn't come on-chain... Anyway, now when the oracle malfunctions, the group immediately adopts a "wait for confirmation" consensus, and everyone prefers to miss out rather than be the bag-holder. It's quite normal; human nature is much more stable than indicators.