In the past couple of days, some people have been using the curve of stablecoin supply to “spin” the story that “when ETFs come in, off-chain funds flood in.” To be frank, I’m a bit wary of this smooth narrative. More stablecoins could be ammunition in reserve—but they could also just be moving from other chains/exchanges, or everyone might first switch into stablecoins and then observe. The correlation can look convincing, but the causality is really hard to pin down. On the ETF side, subscriptions/redemptions, market making, and on-chain liquidity are not in the same pool—so don’t automatically start imagining “the money is here” just because a certain on-chain number is rising.

By the way, during the airdrop season, task platforms have been getting harsher and harsher against “anti-witchcraft,” and the points system is forcing the “hair-pullers” to behave like they’re clocking in at work… this kind of “busyness” can also cause stablecoins to be shuffled back and forth, making the data easier to drown out in noise.

Let’s take a closer look.