Recently, I’ve seen people citing stablecoin supply and ETF inflows as “proof of the next wave of takeoff.” To be blunt, correlation isn’t causation. The money coming in might simply be changing lanes, hedging, or even waiting for liquidity pools to get hit. I can feel myself wanting to jump in too—mainly because when I see big on-chain transfers and any unusual movement between an exchange’s hot and cold wallets, my brain automatically completes the narrative of “smart money is positioning,” and I start worrying that I’ll miss out or that I’m not sharp enough. In any case, I’m forcing myself to stick back to my exit plan: first, write down what I’ll do if the market rises/falls to certain levels, then decide whether to take action; otherwise, I’ll just treat it as if I didn’t see these “signals.”