When Polymarket begins pricing peace agreements, on-chain data becomes a leading indicator of geopolitical trends—does 63% consensus imply that a draft already exists at the negotiation table?

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MeNews
The United States and Iran may reach a permanent peace agreement before 2026.
According to ME News on May 24 (UTC+8), forecast market data shows that in the judgment regarding "The United States and Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement before May 26, 2026," the probability of the "Yes" option has increased from 8.5% to 63.0%, a daily rise of 54.5 percentage points.
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