My current feeling is: positions can be gradually increased a little, but don't rush to go all in at once, just treat it as testing the water temperature. The expectation of interest rate cuts is too much like a mirror ball, everyone is looking at the same shadow, then filling in the story with their own emotions.

When interest rates go down, what moves first is not the slogan "cryptos should rise," but a loosening of risk appetite, less desire for cash, and funds will start looking for more exciting places. But I usually don't rely on a macro statement to increase positions; I look at on-chain indicators: whether stablecoin net inflows have changed, whether exchange net inflows are coming in or going out, and whether perpetuals are suddenly flooded with leverage. Only when all three align do I dare to allocate a bit more.

Recently, there's also a pretty annoying phenomenon: the discussion about the dollar index and risk assets moving up and down together has resurfaced. Basically, everyone is looking for a simple anchor, but the market often doesn't give one. Anyway, I follow the data—if emotions rise, I reduce a bit; if emotions collapse, don't rush to buy the dip—let the mirror ball spin a couple of times first.