$CL Overall, Iran is essentially the Revolutionary Guards fighting against all of Iran. When it’s peaceful, the Revolutionary Guards’ control grows weaker; overall, it will be led by religion and civilian officials. Religion and civilian officials will purge the Revolutionary Guards because they feel it’s gone too far—betting everyone’s lives on it. So in the future, even if the United States doesn’t do the clearing for you, they will themselves proactively announce that they have completely dismantled the nuclear program, and so on. That’s the basic probabilistic version—because everyone wants to live.