Recently, I keep seeing people treat a rise in stablecoin supply as “solid proof that ETF funds have started flowing in,” and it makes me want to laugh a little. Correlation is a master of deception—money moving off-chain might only be changing its “shell” and sitting there, or market makers/arbitrageurs may just be stocking up on ammunition first. Whether they actually end up buying or not is another question. Plainly speaking, it’s better to look at where the stablecoins go and how fast they move than just the on-chain minting amount—stablecoins sitting in a wallet are not the same thing as real inflow into spot markets.

By the way, hardware wallets are out of stock, and phishing links are flying around everywhere. People’s security awareness is waking up on one hand, but on the other hand, social engineering is still pushing them down and rubbing it in… I don’t know whether the funds are in or out of the market, but at least “smart money” will clear the private key hurdle first. Anyway, whenever I see any airdrops or customer-service direct messages, I default to thinking they’re a trap—I’d rather miss out than have to play catch-up later.