Market Strategist Issues Major Warning to XRP Holders: Get Ready Now

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Crypto analyst Levi Rietveld has issued a stark warning to XRP holders. The trigger is the Federal Reserve’s newly released meeting minutes, and what they reveal about where monetary policy may be heading.

The Fed Minutes Signal a Shift

The minutes confirm that a majority of Fed officials believe rate hikes may be necessary if inflation persists. This is a significant signal. The Fed has held rates steady through much of 2025, but the calculus is shifting.

Rietveld points directly to the war in the Middle East as the driver. Oil prices have stayed elevated. Inflation has followed. The conflict has lasted longer than markets expected, and there is no clear end in sight. The Fed’s primary tool for fighting persistent inflation is raising interest rates. That reality is now back on the table.

Rate Hike Odds Are Rising

Market-implied probabilities currently put the chance of at least one rate hike by the end of 2026 at roughly 60%. Rietveld describes the most likely path as steady rates through mid-year, followed by a potential tightening move later in 2026 if inflation stays elevated. The Fed followed a similar path in 2025, holding rates throughout the year before a reduction at the end.

Rietveld is direct about the uncertainty involved. “We’re still at like a 50-50 chance of this even taking place at all,” he said. The outcome is closely tied to oil prices and the direction of the war in the Middle East. That variable remains unresolved.

A New Fed Chair Enters the Picture

The leadership at the Federal Reserve just changed. Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate and sworn in as the new Fed chair, succeeding Jerome Powell, whose term expired May 15.

Warsh is known for favoring tighter monetary policy, higher real interest rates, and a smaller Fed balance sheet. This combination adds pressure to an already cautious macro environment.

Warsh’s hawkish preferences contradict the easing cycle that drove XRP’s previous rally. Tighter conditions under Warsh could extend the timeline before any meaningful liquidity expansion returns to the market.

XRP Sits at a Macro Crossroads

Rate hikes tighten financial conditions. Liquidity contracts. Investors pull back from risk assets, and XRP is not exempt. Rietveld acknowledges the inverse scenario. If oil prices fall sharply, the Fed loses its justification for hiking. Rate cuts would follow, triggering quantitative easing.

According to Rietveld, “That would blow up the amount of liquidity available in the markets.” This would mean more capital flowing into risk assets, including crypto. The Middle East conflict is the central factor: Oil, inflation, and rate-hike odds trace back there.

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