When Bitcoin drops to $74,300, most people only see ETF outflows, but a deeper underlying signal is emerging: the number of loss chips is approaching a historical bottom threshold.

Analyst Murphy pointed out that during the previous two bear market bottoms (February 2019, January 2022), the BTC loss amount was 10.6 million coins. When BTC fell to $60k in February this year, the loss amount was close to 9.93 million coins; if the price drops again to $60k, the current chip structure will precisely reach 10.6 million—stunningly aligning with the historical bottom.
What does this mean? After the loss amount reaches a critical value, the supply side tends to dry up, seller power diminishes, and the price struggles to fall further. This is not a prediction of the bottom, but an understanding of market structure: when most holders are in loss, and willing to cut losses become fewer, the market naturally forms a support.
The opposite risk is: historical patterns do not simply repeat. This bear market has new variables like ETFs and macro tightening, and the loss threshold may be broken. But ignoring this signal is equivalent to ignoring the most fundamental supply and demand logic of the market.
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