UBER (Uber) — Solid fundamentals, but market pricing has already reflected most optimistic expectations

1. Financial performance: Beats expectations, but the stock price is lackluster

On May 6, UBER released its Q1 2026 earnings report: adjusted EPS was $0.72 (slightly better than the expected $0.70); gross booking amount increased 25% year-over-year to $53.7 billion, exceeding market expectations by about $5.28 billion; delivery business revenue was $5.07 billion, also higher than the estimated $4.89 billion. Adjusted EBITDA grew 33% year-over-year to $2.5 billion, exceeding market expectations by 1.8%. Non-GAAP net profit margin remained at a relatively high level of around 11%.

On the day the earnings were released, the stock price rose at one point by about 7.6%, but then quickly pulled back. As of May 23, the stock closed at $73.61, nearly 28% below the 52-week high of $101.99, and it has already fallen below the 50-day moving average (about $73.54), with the short-term moving average system showing a tangled and weak pattern.

2. The key contradiction: Is Robotaxi a long-term positive or a valuation killer?

Market caution mainly comes from the “disruptive narrative” of autonomous driving (Robotaxi) for UBER’s business model:

· Positive logic: CICC is optimistic about the buildout of UBER’s autonomous driving ecosystem, with a target price of $99.4. Truist raised its target price to $112, believing that progress in autonomous driving can provide long-term support for valuation. UBER management plans to launch autonomous driving mobility services in up to 15 cities through more than 20 autonomous driving partners by the end of 2026.
· Negative concerns: Analysts generally worry that UBER’s current forward PE is about 22x, higher than its average over the past four years of 19x. Multiple institutions also point out that if competitive Robotaxi service providers emerge, UBER’s platform bargaining power will be eroded.

3. Growth logic and valuation alignment

The current TTM P/E of about 17.12x is within a reasonable range, but the issue is that this valuation has already priced in an expansion path for revenue growth of about 15%-20% and profit margins from about 10.7% to over 15%. The real disagreement is whether the market needs to reserve an additional discount for the risk that “Robotaxi cannot be monetized by UBER.” CICC notes that UBER’s valuation implies about 22/15x PE for 2026/2027, which is not “undervalued.”

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