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What impact will the rate cut + balance sheet reduction policy advocated by the new Federal Reserve Chair, Wosh, have?
Balance sheet reduction will lead to the selling off of long-term government bonds, causing the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury to rise.
Rate cuts will directly affect short-term government bonds, causing the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury to fall.
As a result, the spread between long- and short-term interest rates will accelerate upward, which is also known as “yield curve steepening.”
And when the yield curve shifts from “inversion” to “steepening,” it is a strong warning sign of an impending recession.