I used to love saying, “I only look at the on-chain,” feeling like both prices and emotions are unreliable. Later, reality hit me in the face: on-chain can be played, too—especially those “coincidence transfers” where A sends B one chunk, and then B splits it into a few transfers into new wallets. From the outside it looks like random retail back-and-forth, but if you trace the path, it often loops back to the same old set of addresses—like you’re washing the money into “John Doe.”

My method now is pretty clumsy: first, check whether the funds ultimately all come from the same deposit entry point; then see whether the intermediaries have a fixed cadence, with the same batch of gas habits; and in the end, watch whether wallets related to the project suddenly “slip” and come in to catch the transfer.

Lately Meme coins and celebrity pump-call hype have been running hot again. Old players say don’t catch the last round—this isn’t me trying to sound deep… In any case, I’d rather miss out than be a victim of another “coincidence.”