Bitcoin Bull and Bear Cycle Signals + Operation Logic (2026 Latest Version)

Bitcoin does not have an eternal bull market, only a 4-year halving cycle + chip transfer + emotional cycle. Understanding the signals is more important than blindly chasing highs or holding on through dips. 👇

🔴 Bear market bottom signals (phased deployment zone)

• ✅ On-chain chips: Exchange BTC balances continue to hit new lows (about 1.8 million coins in April 2026, the lowest since 2021), coins transfer to wallets, long-term holders (LTH) hold ≥70%, locked and immobile.

• ✅ Valuation indicators: MVRV<1, NUPL≈0, SOPR long-term<1, entire network is trapped, no one wants to sell.

• ✅ Sentiment & capital: Search volume hits bottom, media bearish, retail investors close accounts; stablecoin balances high, off-chain funds have “ammunition” enough.

• ✅ Cycle规律: 12–18 months after halving, around 365 days after peaks (top in October 2025 → bottom likely in October–November 2026).
Operation: Mainly dollar-cost averaging, avoid all-in. Build positions in 5–10 weeks, buy more on dips; hold spot, leverage ≤2x or no leverage.

🟢 Bull market top signals (phased profit-taking zone)

• ✅ On-chain chips: Exchange balances rapidly rise, LTH start reducing holdings (reduce 25%–30% at 2017/2021 tops), whales transfer coins to exchanges.

• ✅ Valuation indicators: MVRV>3, NUPL>0.7, SOPR>1.2, network is wildly profitable, strong willingness to take profits.

• ✅ Sentiment & capital: Search volume surges, media hype, newcomers rush in; stablecoin balances decline, off-chain funds exhausted.

• ✅ Cycle规律: 18–24 months after halving, gains ≥5–10x, market consensus “will always rise”.
Operation: Phased profit-taking, avoid greed. Sell in 3–5 rounds, reduce 20% each 10% rise; gradually unwind leverage, only short-term trading with quick entries and exits.

⚙️ Core logic of bull-bear transition (remember in one sentence)

• Bear to bull = chips shift from retail investors → whales/long-term holders (accumulation phase).

• Bull to bear = chips shift from whales/long-term holders → retail investors (distribution phase).

• The 4-year halving is the fundamental driver: the fourth halving in April 2024, inflation rate 0.78%, scarcity elevates the value base.